State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

An eNRGetic Random Walk













NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) is a wholesale power generation company. The part of their business that interest CNBC's Jim Cramer in the video above is NRG's retail electricity business in texas, particularly their plans to provide charging stations for electric cars.
Cramer thinks that the electric car market is poised to take off by 2013 and that NRG will be well positioned to take advantage of the added demand for electricity. In the words of David Crane, CEO of NRG, the electricity car is what the air-cconditioner was to demand for electricity.

What does the Random Stock Walker think about NRG. Unfortunately, the stock is a random walk. The figure above shows the random walk forecast out to 2013. Since 2004, the stock has been driven by shocks. The analyst opinions are also not very positive with 6 out of 10 downgrading the stock (here) and predicting a media price target of 23. From the random walk forecast, any stock price different from 20 would be unexpected.

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