AAPL above 500? Not Real Until Well Into 2013!

There has been a lot of speculation today on CNBC and in print (here) about the Apple (AAPL) stock price hitting 500 before the end of the week. On Thursday of this week, the stock had a ten point run up from 480 to 490 leading to speculation that another ten point run up might be about to happen. Since mid-day Thursday, however, the stock price has been flat at around 490.
The Random Stock Walker finds these valuations a little improbable for so early in 2012. My forecast above, created at the beginning of 2012, does not show AAPL reaching 500 with high probability (the green dashed line is the upper 98% bootstrap prediction interval and the dashed red line is the attractor forecast) until well into 2013.

These predictions do not mean that AAPL cannot skyrocket above 500 over the next few weeks. If an investor needs to take some money off the table, however, the models suggest paying attention to any negative turning points right now.