UPDATE SEP 27, 2016: My sources and the media (here) say that there are multiple potential bidders for Twitter (Google GOOGL, Salesforce CRM, Disney DIS, Verizon VZ, MicroSoft MFST and even Apple AAPL). My sources also warn me that acquisitions with multiple buyers are not things that can be predicted since there are many other factors (end-of-year tax write-offs, etc.) in addition to sheer randomness--a lesson for all forecasters.
SEP 26, 2016: The Random Stock Walker has been keeping his ear to the ground and hears word from knowledgeable and interesting people (who may just be trying to distract him from other research) that Twitter is about to be sold (TWTR is the stock symbol link where you will find that analysts are being very public about a Google takeover). My first question is when might this happen?
The time plot above displays the attractor path for TWTR (the dashed red line) and the 98% bootstrap prediction intervals (green and red dashed line). Currently, TWTR stock is in an area of improbably high valuation (above the upper 98% prediction interval). If we look at when the prediction intervals will hit zero (a better time to buy the company rather than right now) you can see that the model is predicting either a sale (or a collapse of the stock and maybe the company) sometime in 2017.
Let's now wait until next year and see how good the Random Stock Walker Models actually are.
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