Is the SP500 in a TECH Bubble?

Oct 16, 2026 Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate. Azeem Azhar and Paul Kedrosky debate whether A.I. will make the economy crash.

In the debate ( Is There an A.I. Bubble? A Debate) on the Ezra Klein Show (Podcast), Paul Kedrosky, a partner at the venture capital firm SK Ventures, argue that there is while Azeem Azhar, a British technology entrepreneur, author and analyst, argues that there isn't. The graphic above (the dashed line is the attractor path for the SP500) shows thatw there isn't. But, let's look at the arguments:

• We are in one of the largest capital expenditure waves of history, echoing the railroad boom, the canal expansions, electrification, and the interstate highway system.
• Everyone is leveraged to AI.
• We are not over-built yet; there is a vast under-supply of AI.
• "Never confuse your early customers for what the real market will look like."
• The major Super-Scalers (Meta, OpenAI, Google, etc.) have a surprisingly small number of customers and are at risk.
• "A general-purpose technology shows up, it continuously improves, and then it starts to create the need for complementary services — whether it’s maintenance or whether it is repair or whether it’s something you can now do with the technology...This is the normal evolution of a general-purpose technology..."

 

Notes

• Financial Forecast Center SP500 Forecast Same Conclusion.

Financial Forecast Center