RIMM: Research In (No) Motion

The NY Times today (here) reported on the mounting list of problems at Research in Motion (RIMM): declining stock prices, declining market share, proliferation of models, problems with the new tablet product (Playbook), delay in introducing both new products and the new operating system. My intention is not to pile on here, but the Random Stock Walker is always interested in the dynamics of companies that are about to collapse. What do my models say about RIMM?
First, RIM's stock price is pretty strongly being driven by growth of the World System. This is generally a good thing for a stock. However, from the attractor forecast, above, it's probably too late for RIMM to recover. The decline started in mid-2005 and was not arrested by a pop during the Financial Bubble. The stock, in all probability, does not have much more time before it is worthless.

SPB: Spectrum Brands

Spectrum Brands (SPB) is a global branded consumer products holding company located in Madison, WI. Spectrum is probably best know for the Rayovac Battery, Remington, Black & Decker and Faberware brands. Essentially, SPB acquires brands that have somewhat lost their consumer appeal, merges the brand within their infrastructure and, hopefully, resurrects the brand's image. This stock caught my attention because SPB just received a $4M forgivable loan from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation, a public-private partnership promoting the governor's "Wisconsin is Open for Business Message". The question is, was the money well spent? How long is it likely that the company will keep nearly 500 jobs at its corporate offices in Madison, WI (the reason for the forgivable loan)?

SPB promotes itself as a global company. The graphic above shows the time plot of SPB's stock price. The dashed red line is the dynamic attractor driven by the world economy (the blue and green dashed lines are the 98% bootstrap prediction intervals). SPB emerged from bankruptcy in 2009 (here) and was re-listed on the NYSE. I not sure what to say about the company's future, but the stock price is heading for a crash. If the company follows the stock price then the 500 jobs are probably only good for another few years.