State Space Models

All state space models are written and estimated in the R programming language. The models are available here with instructions and R procedures for manipulating the models here here.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

SPB: Spectrum Brands

Spectrum Brands (SPB) is a global branded consumer products holding company located in Madison, WI. Spectrum is probably best know for the Rayovac Battery, Remington, Black & Decker and Faberware brands. Essentially, SPB acquires brands that have somewhat lost their consumer appeal, merges the brand within their infrastructure and, hopefully, resurrects the brand's image. This stock caught my attention because SPB just received a $4M forgivable loan from the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation, a public-private partnership promoting the governor's "Wisconsin is Open for Business Message". The question is, was the money well spent? How long is it likely that the company will keep nearly 500 jobs at its corporate offices in Madison, WI (the reason for the forgivable loan)?
SPB promotes itself as a global company. The graphic above shows the time plot of SPB's stock price. The dashed red line is the dynamic attractor driven by the world economy (the blue and green dashed lines are the 98% bootstrap prediction intervals). SPB emerged from bankruptcy in 2009 (here) and was re-listed on the NYSE. I not sure what to say about the company's future, but the stock price is heading for a crash. If the company follows the stock price then the 500 jobs are probably only good for another few years.

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