In May of 2011, James Altucher of Formula Capital forecast (here) that AAPL would be the first company to be worth more than $1 trillion which would be a price of about $1,000 per share. CNBC recently ran a twitter poll asking when viewers thought this might happen. I haven't seen the answer to this poll, but here are my answers based on the forecast graph above: There is a 1% chance that AAPL will hit $1000 per share by mid-2018, a 50% chance by the start of 2021 and a 99% chance by mid-2034. In other words, spreculation about the event would seem a little premature right now.
For the present, AAPL still seems to be undervalued (P/E > 15), continues to have a strong balance sheet and continues to have products in the pipeline (see more analysis here).
For the coming year, if AAPL has a few drops when the stock price gets close to the lower 98% bootstrap prediction interval (the dashed blue line above), it would seem to be a buy if one can afford a stock price approaching $500 per share. AAPL also had a few pops last year when the price reached the upper 98% bootstrap prediction interval (dashed green line). I need to take some profits so hopefully I'll be able to catch one of the peaks when I sell.
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